Just in time for the first anticipated heat wave of the summer in the Philly area, North American Electric Reliability Corporation (“NERC”) released the 2013 Summer Reliability Assessment.

Prognosis: Stable with a chance of weather strain.

Good news: A majority of the areas in the NERC report are projecting sufficient resources to meet summer peak demands. Retirements and retrofits to meet future environmental regulations are not anticipated to cause reliability concerns this summer.

Wind and Solar Capacity resources are projected to increase over 2012’s amount. Solar and wind expected on-peak capacity projections for this year are 2,928 MW and 11,753 MW, respectively.

Bad news: Planning reserve margins for ERCOT are below the NERC Reference Margin Level. The Anticipated Reserve Margin for ERCOT is 12.88 percent for summer 2013. This is below the 13.75 percent target for ERCOT. Sustained extreme weather this summer could threaten supply adequacy.

Monitoring is necessary to manage potential drought conditions. Although all regions have indicated that no substantial operating impacts due to the drought are projected, NERC believes increasing drought conditions could give rise to localized challenge.

In California (WECC-CAMX Assessment Area), the planning reserve margin of 18.52 percent is above the NERC Reference Margin Level (15 percent) for the 2013 summer. However, reliability in southern California under extreme weather and adverse supply conditions remains a concern for NERC.

The 45-page report provides an independent assessment of the reliability of the bulk electricity supply and demand in North America for the period June 2013 through September 2013. The primary objective in providing this assessment is to identify areas of concern regarding the reliability of the North American bulk power system (“BPS”) and to make recommendations for remedial actions as needed.